MOSCOW, October 6 (RIA Novosti) - Kevin DeJesus, Adjunct Professor of the Department of Social Sciences at Johnson and Wales University, spoke with Radio VR on the recent Islamic State offensive against the Kurdish-controlled Syrian town of Kobani near the Turkish border, which may, in the expert’s opinion, trigger the direct involvement of Turkey’s military in the Syrian conflict.
“As the situation unfolds, Turkey cannot and will not allow this situation right at the border to threaten Turkey. We have yet to see what the government will do, but clearly the government of Turkey through its legislative body has positioned itself to respond”, Prof. DeJesus says. The large-scale offensive, the Islamic State militants have started over the last several days presents a huge threat, not only to Turkey, but to the global community, the expert says.
“All continual advances of Islamic state and all claiming of territories regardless of their symbolic value or its resource assets is a great concern. For this situation in particular we have a very strategic location. Kobani is located right at the Turkish border. In order for this regional situation to be contained and not spread, it is vital that Kobani be overtaken by coalition forces by defeating the Islamic State”, Prof. DeJesus notes. The most important point to watch now is how Turkey responds to the security situation and whether they use military force, says the expert.
As Islamic State forces advance on Kobani, Turkish military are deployed at the Syrian border, ready to start ground operations. Meanwhile, the US-led coalition continues its airstrikes against Islamic State positions and communications. Prof. DeJesus suggests that the aerial operation should continue.
“There is limited information about the details of the military operation that is happening in Kobani”, says the expert. “Repelling Islamic State there is difficult to achieve. The question is how strong the international intelligence estimates are about the situation there, and, given the extremely high level of the US air power to read the situation on the ground through the remote sensing technologies, it leaves us to wonder to what degree we are actually mapping out the positions of Islamic State in Kobani and how effectively we are using that information. The airstrikes obviously need to continue, they are having some effect, the question is how well we’ll continue to interpret and understand the capacity of Islamic State to maneuver and adapt … which they are able to do to some degree”.
The situation in Kobani has become a matter of global concern, as the conflict is approaching the previously neutral Turkish nation. “Now that we’ve seen that little crisis in relationships between the US and Turkey, we can move on with our collaboration, we see that Kurdish politicians from Turkey, Syria and Iraq are now ringing the alarm bell quite loudly and calling for ground troops. It is unlikely that the US will maneuver that quickly”, notes Prof. DeJesus. We might soon see the Turkish armed forces involved in the conflict.
“The question is not whether the airstrikes are enough to contain and stop Islamic State from taking Kobani. This is a serious global issue that should not fall only on the US responsibility. Really for Turkey this crisis has long been of grave concern, their position was largely to see Assad go. They have been restraining themselves from the participation in the conflict, but now that may come to an end because the war is close to Turkey’s border”, Prof. DeJesus says.
The possible involvement of the Turkish military in Syria would mean the eruption of armed hostilities between Turkey and the Assad regime, says Prof. DeJesus. “At least in the United States we have this fantastical stance that the airpower is decisive in containing the conflict, and that is mythical. There are limits to air power. Clearly, a country like Turkey would be greatly reluctant to engage in take on the Assad regime. That would mean that Turkey is directly confronting in military terms the Assad government”, the expert stresses. “This is a huge undertaking for any country, and for Turkey that would be too far. But the situation that we see it now, the equation is quite different; it is a little bit more than simply a battle against the Assad regime”, Prof. DeJesus conludes.
The Turkish parliament has recently decided to renew a mandate allowing Turkish military units to conduct anti-terrorist operations abroad, including in Syria and Iraq against the Islamic State. Calls for ground operation against Islamic State have been more insistent following the latest series of the Islamic State successes on the battlefield. However, most developed nations are still strongly opposed to any escalation of their operation in Iraq and Syria beyond the airstrikes.
