Victor Nadein-Raevsky, Russian political analyst, and Istanbul-based researcher Fevzi Doruk Ergun debate how Turkey’s role as a bridge between Europe and Asia will evolve following the election of former PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan as the country’s 12th president.
Having won the election in the first round Turkey's former prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan became Turkey's 12th president. During his inaugural speech Erdogan has outlined the major directions in Turkey's domestic and foreign policy.
What do you personally expect from Turkey’s new President?
Fevzi Doruk Ergun: I would expect from Mr. Erdogan to continue his policies that he’s enacted for the last year or so. In the last few years we’ve seen a more harsh and a more authoritarian tone from Mr. Erdogan. And he’s made it no secret that he prefers the US-style executive system over the current electoral system that we have in Turkey.
I believe that it will be his priority to push for a stronger control in terms of how he runs the country and a more deinstitutionalized foreign policy, and internal policy as well.
Victor Nadein-Raevsky: I think he’ll try just to do something with Constitution in order to strengthen his positions as President, because the Turkish President for now has too little opportunities to influence the Turkish policy on the whole. Secondly, his economic course was, of course, a success. And he tries to unite the Turkish population around the Turkish national idea, plus the new relations with the Muslim countries, with the countries that are not members of NATO, for example with Russia. And I hope that he will do his best to make the situation better in the surrounding region, meaning Syria, Iraq, finding the way for a peaceful resolution of the conflicts.
How strong Erdogan’s position is now? Will he have an easy ride as a president?
Fevzi Doruk Ergun: It appears that he will indeed have an easy ride as the President, though it is uncertain whether he will be able to achieve enough parliamentary support for changing the Constitution. That being the case, he doesn’t necessarily need to have a change in the Constitution to have a stronger executive system in Turkey installed. But if he is able to continue having a majority Government in the upcoming elections in 2015, which appears to be the case based on the current political scene, he will still have a cabinet that forces the decisions.
And how strong is the Turkish opposition?
Fevzi Doruk Ergun: In political terms, the Turkish opposition is not very strong. The electorate isn’t always behind how the opposition handles the role that it has right now.
Victor Nadein-Raevsky: The opposition is weak. But if he does not strengthen the ties with the Kurdish and other minorities in the country, it will be difficult to gain the majority in the Parliament. It seems to me that will anyhow play its role in the future Parliament elections.
Turkey serves as a bridge between the West and the East. Given the current climate, Turkey’s role becomes very important. What position will it take?
Fevzi Doruk Ergun: Now Turkey has tremendously good economic relations with Russia. Russia is Turkey’s second biggest trading partner. The Western alliance is very much inclined to believe that Russia is involved, either explicitly or implicitly, in the ongoing clashes in southeastern Ukraine. And we’ve seen that Turkey is willing to stand by its NATO partners in this regard, but this is putting relationship with Russia at a big risk. That’s why Turkey stays silent for the time being.
Victor Nadein-Raevsky: The main thing for Turkey is just to be on the middle line.
Do Turks still want to be part of the EU?
Fevzi Doruk Ergun: Not as much, as they used to 10 years ago. The Government doesn’t necessarily feel the need to push for the EU membership and the electorate reflects it as well.
Victor Nadein-Raevsky: There were a lot of expectations and no results. And, as you see, France, Germany and some other countries are absolutely against the Turks. That’s now the way of equality. That’s why Turkey turns also to the east and to the north, or even tries to find some ways to cooperate with both – with the EU and with the newly formed organization of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus. And, of course, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, that is a very interesting way for Turkey and no one there is against this.
How Russia is now seen by Turkey?
Fevzi Doruk Ergun: I think Russia is seen positively, except for the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. Russia’s involvement in the Georgian crisis in 2008 and now its involvement in Ukraine has strategic costs for Turkey. It would be against Turkey’s interest to see an increased competition between NATO and Russia, because it wants to benefit from having good relations with both partners, instead of choosing between them. And if that becomes the case, I think Turkey will have to choose NATO, because of the level of the relationship.
Would you agree that Erdogan has the potential to become a reformer, as he promises to be?
Victor Nadein-Raevsky: To tell the truth, everything that was done during the rule of Erdogan is really a revolution. Erdogan has led the country through ideological restructuring. Turkey rose up, the population lives much better than it was before Erdogan. Look at the Kurds, they can speak their language, they have their radio stations, TV, newspapers and so on. It is really a revolution for Turkey. Not all of the Turks can applaud that, of course, but it is the same in every country. And I think he wants to do some other ideas in reforming the country.
Fevzi Doruk Ergun: It is true that in terms of reflecting on Turkey’s past, Turkey has done much better under Erdogan’s rule. But in terms of the police’s crackdown on the political dissent, the current status of the freedom of media and the freedom of the judiciary, Turkey is not performing well.
