Could Ethnic Strife in the Baltic States Fuel the Next War?

Ethnic Russians are being targeted by nationalist governments in the Baltics, creating a potentially explosive dynamic.

Recent statements by French President and aspiring Emperor Emmanuel Macron have generated speculation the proxy war between Russia and the West could escalate to a new and dangerous phase.

To the consternation of other European leaders, Macron has repeatedly suggested France may send soldiers to the Donbass to avert the collapse of Ukraine’s diminished armed forces. Other countries would likely hesitate to join the French president in his quixotic endeavor, but analyst Scott Ritter speculates the increasingly anti-Russia Baltic States might be among the first to contribute troops.

Tensions are already growing in the Baltics between nationalist forces and ethnic Russians who, as in other Eastern European countries, make up sizable minorities. Could racial strife lead towards violent conflict in the Baltics as it has in Ukraine? Journalist Dan Lazare joined Sputnik’s The Critical Hour program Wednesday to examine that question.

“Der Spiegel International reports, 'Latvia Tightens the Screws on Its Russian Minority,” said host Wilmer Leon, reading from the German online magazine. “‘Around 30% of the Latvian population are Russian speakers. The government believes they could provide Vladimir Putin with a bridgehead into the country. The atmosphere is growing tense.’”

“I think the comparison [to Ukraine] is absolutely, absolutely, appropriate,” said Lazare. “All through Eastern Europe you have essentially nationalist regimes that have targeted their Russian-speaking residents as somehow disloyal or somehow contrary to the national project and have implemented various forms of discrimination. It's especially severe in Latvia, but it's also the case in Estonia and Lithuania.”

“They're threatening them with deportation, they are firing them from jobs, they're forcing them to take language tests,” the author continued. “Washington… says absolutely nothing about these abuses because they work in favor of US foreign policy.”

Leon continued reading from the piece in Der Speigel, recounting the story of a Latvian woman whose cousin received a government letter declaring he “must immediately leave the country for the protection of national security.” Federal agents appeared at his door shortly after, giving him one hour to pack before sending him to a detention center to be deported to Russia.

“It's outrageous,” said Lazare. “Latvia for the Latvians. Where have we heard that before?”

“All these countries have extensive minorities – linguistic, religious, etcetera,” he noted. “The US has been playing footsie with this kind of nationalism, and it's disastrous. It's led to one war and it'll lead to others.”

Lazare described a dynamic in the Baltics similar to that of Ukraine during World War II, where pro-Soviet citizens supported the Soviet Union and nationalist regimes sided with the fascist Axis.

“They tear down Soviet war memorials and, on at least one occasion, put up memorials celebrating the achievements of World War Two [Nazi] collaborators,” Lazare explained. “We saw at least a million examples of this in the Ukraine, where statues of Stepan Bandera, the pro-Nazi World War Two collaborationist leader, have popped up all over the country. But we've seen it as well in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.”

“In Latvia I believe the veterans of a World War Two SS battalion staged yearly parades, to the applause of bystanders. In Latvia, amazingly enough, elderly war veterans who served in partisan units – many of them Jewish – have been prosecuted for war crimes, believe it or not. So this is absolutely explosive, and it's been percolating for years,” he said.

Lazare warned the conflict in the Donbass is reaching “the most dangerous stage” as Ukraine approaches its inevitable defeat. “That panic could take explosive forms,” the journalist said, with majority-Russian areas in Latvia, Estonia, and elsewhere potentially becoming “flash points” of violence.

He added that Ukraine’s loss should cause people throughout the continent to question why the United States is “plunging the region into war.” The US played a key role in destabilizing Ukraine with their support for the Maidan coup, which installed a Russophobic regime in Kiev. The event led to an armed conflict in the country’s Donbass region, compelling Russia to eventually intervene as the coup government turned its military on separatist forces.

The US again escalated tensions with the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline, Lazare claimed.

“They [Europe] should definitely attend to that issue [of self preservation] and they should do so in a rational, long range manner,” the author concluded. “And that means not blindly following the US down some garden path which ends in disaster. America's military record of the last 30 years has been extraordinary, and not in a good way.”