Hard Line on Russia, 'Further Separation' With EU & Tensions With US: What to Expect From PM Truss

Opinion polls show Foreign Secretary Liz Truss is leading former Chancellor Rishi Sunak by a two-to-one ratio among Conservative Party members who will decide which of the two will be the next prime minister – amid the raging energy and inflation crisis.

Liz Truss is unlikely to make any major policy deviations from Boris Johnson's government if she takes over as prime minister next week.

Truss, the incumbent foreign secretary, is a strong favorite to defeat former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak in the Conservative Party leadership contest and succeed Johnson as prime minister on September 5th.

But her rival, Rishi Sunak, has attacked Truss over her plans to reverse his increase in corporate taxes from 19 percent to 25 percent —set to come into force next April — along with other mooted tax cuts adding up to some £30 billion as her solution to the energy crisis that could tip millions of households into fuel poverty this winter.

Russia and Ukraine

Alistair Jones, associate professor of politics at Leicester's De Montfort University, predicted Truss would not break with the EU and its NATO allies — dominated by the US — over the Ukraine conflict, and would keep on arming Ukraine.

"Britain is going to try to present itself as being America's biggest and closest ally in all things to do with, for example, NATO. So Truss will carry on there where Boris Johnson left off," he said.

"The same will apply to the relationship with Russia. There's going to be no change at all," Jones added. "So a Liz Truss government will carry on backing the Ukrainian regime, sending arms and other equipment and other technologies to Ukraine in the fight against Russia."

Mark Garnett, a professor of politics at Lancaster University, said Truss would likely follow a similar line to the outgoing PM — and if anything, be more hostile to Russia than her predecessor.

"She was, after all, foreign secretary in Johnson's government and much of her support within the Conservative Party comes from people who agreed with Johnson's approach," Garnett said.

"This means that there will be no change in the UK's stance towards Russia. If anything, Truss might be more hostile in her rhetoric than Johnson."

European Neighbors

Garnett stressed that in order to win the support of ordinary party members, Truss had to work hard to shed the "Remainer" stigma as one of those who opposed the 2016 referendum vote to leave the European Union (EU).

She has to be "careful to avoid giving the impression that she regards the EU as Britain's most important ally and trading partner," Garnett said, pointing to her recent public comment that the "jury was still out" on whether French President Emanuel Macron was a genuine ally to the UK.

"Her comments about Macron were applauded by her supporters even if some members of her party thought them ill-advised," he said.

Jones warned that a post-Brexit bonfire of red tape could mean attacks on workplace rights and benefits, speculating that statutory holiday pay, maternity leave, and workplace health and safety regulations could be abolished.

Brexit opportunities minister Jacob Rees-Mogg has proposed a five-year "sunset clause" for EU regulations that the UK has retained, but it is unclear which the government would legislate to replace in kind before that expiry date.

"Truss is adamant that we are going to see further separation between the UK and the EU," Jones said. "There are already plans for regulatory divergence and she is pledging to push these through as fast as possible."

Transatlantic Tensions

The "special relationship" between London and Washington would be put under strain under a Truss government, Garnett argued.

US President Joe Biden, who sees himself as an Irish-American, was also an opponent of Brexit. Biden and other US politicians have warned the UK against invoking Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol of the 2020 withdrawal agreement to end customs checks on goods moving from the mainland to the exclave.

"Overall, under Truss Britain is likely to be more isolated in global politics than it was under Johnson," Garnett said.

No Alternative to Tax and Spend

Turning to domestic policy, Garnett said Truss' campaign promises were playing to Tory members who were angered by Sunak's rises in National Insurance and corporation tax to pay for the COVID-19 lockdown furlough scheme and to clear the NHS backlog.

Truss has been tight-lipped on the details of how she will tackle the cost-of-living crisis — brought on by the West's sanctions on Russia over its special military operation in Ukraine.

That has left the British media to speculate, including on claims that she plans to cut five percent from the 20 percent value-added tax (VAT) on most goods. Both candidates have mulled scrapping the 5 percent VAT on household energy bills.

"She will try to use tax cuts in a way which offers direct help to people affected by the cost of living crisis — in particular, lowering the tax on domestic fuel," he said, but once in office, "she can be expected to change her priorities in response to growing economic difficulties."

While most economists agree with Sunak's criticism of Truss' policies, he adds, "it seems likely that, once she has secured the necessary votes from Conservative members, she will be forced to adopt Sunak's own approach."