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Khodorkovsky's guilty verdict 'no surprise' - experts

© RIA Novosti . Andrei Stenin / Go to the mediabankMikhail Khodorkovsky
Mikhail Khodorkovsky  - Sputnik International
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Russian experts said on Monday that the guilty verdict to jailed ex-Yukos head Mikhail Khodorkovsky was predictable, given the current political situation in the country, but suggested that punishment for Russia's most renowned oligarch may be less strict than prosecutors had demanded.

Russian experts said on Monday that the guilty verdict to jailed ex-Yukos head Mikhail Khodorkovsky was predictable, given the current political situation in the country, but suggested that punishment for Russia's most renowned oligarch may be less strict than prosecutors had demanded.

Moscow's Khamovniki Court announced a guilty verdict to Khodorkovsky and his former business partner, Platon Lebedev, earlier on Monday. The two men, who have already spent seven years behind bars for tax evasion, have been found guilty of embezzlement and money laundering in the second case initiated against them in 2007.

"It would be strange if the verdict was not guilty. It was determined by the logic of the process, and Judge [Viktor] Danilkin has no choice," Alexei Mukhin, who heads Russia's Center for Political Information, told RIA Novosti.

When asked to share his opinion on whether the court's decision was independent, the expert referred to Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev's recent comments on the Khodorkovsky case. During his question-and-answer session with Russians earlier this month, Putin said "I think that a thief belongs in jail." Medvedev said in an interview with leading Russian TV channels on Friday that "no official has the right to express his position on this case until the verdict."

"Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's conclusion could be interpreted as an attempt to put pressure on the judge... at a very high level, and Dmitry Medvedev stressed it... But the president's reaction was a reaction of a professional lawyer. He understood very well that Vladimir Putin's words could be used by Khodorkovsky's defense to challenge the court's decision," he said.

The president's comment was not a result of his intention to fall out with the prime minister, but to warn him about the consequences that his "emotion-driven" words could have, he said, adding that "if Dmitry Medvedev was Putin's lawyer, he would try to prevent him from saying this."

Prosecutors have accused Khodorkovsky and Lebedev of embezzling 218 million tons of oil from Yukos and laundering over 3 billion rubles ($97.5 million) in revenues. They demanded the court sentence the convicts, whose prison terms in the previous case were due to expire in 2011, to 14 years in jail overall, which means they would spend up to seven more years in prison.

Between Scylla and Charybdis

It is obvious that the authorities' approach to the Yukos case has moved off dead center, Mukhin said.

"It seems that a long sentence for Khodorkovsky was not that relevant for the ruling tandem [Medvedev and Putin] anymore. I think the judge will try to find a compromise, which means the sentence... will be significantly decreased," Mukhin said.

"The situation is very complicated. I think Mr. Danilkin will find himself between a Scylla of public opinion and a Charybdis of the authorities' mood," he said, adding that by "public opinion" he means a tiny liberal part of the Russian society who have expressed their view on the issue.

The majority of Russians, he said, supported oligarch Khodorkovsky's imprisonment in 2003 and will apparently support the new verdict, although they have no idea what Putin has against the former Yukos head.

Irina Yasina, who heads the Khodorkovsky foundation and the Liberal Mission Fund, agreed with Mukhin that the verdict was no surprise.

There are no chances for Khodorkovsky to be acquitted in the process that she described as Putin's political "vendetta."

"As a person who had been working with Khodorkovsky for many years, I know when and why [Putin began persecuting Khodorkovsky], but this is a topic of another long and sad discussion," she said.

Both Khodorkovsky and Lebedev have repeatedly maintained their innocence and claimed that the charges against them were part of a political campaign launched against Khodorkovsky for his support of opposition parties.

Yasina said Monday's ruling showed that the court in Russia is still far from being independent.

"The court authorities - and we expected this - are certainly fully influenced by executive authorities, by their conservative, special services-related wing," she said, adding that if Judge Danilkin was able to act against the authorities, he would have never been appointed to preside over the process.

Chances remain?

Yasina said she still hoped the new prison term for Khodorkovsky will be short.

"Let us not make premature conclusions. The most terrible thing has not happened yet," Yasina said. "If more than eight years are given [to Khodorkovsky], then we will scream bloody murder."

Mukhin also said there was no chance that the court could review the guilty verdict passed down.

"I think that with the current format of power and in the very sensitive period when the court, the [executive] branch and other authorities in Russia should demonstrate solidarity, we should not expect the verdict to be changed," he said.

Khodorkovsky's defense has already announced that it would appeal the verdict.

The reading of the verdict in the court will take three or four days, after which the court will announce how much time Khodorkovsky and Lebedev will have to spend in jail, Khodorkovsky's lawyer, Yury Shmidt, told RIA Novosti by phone from the courtroom. After this, lawyers will have 10 days to appeal the verdict.

"We have not lost hope for a positive outcome. The defendant [Khodorkovsky] is ready to fight to the end, and the defense supports him," Shmidt said.

When asked if there was any chance for Khodorkovsky to be cleared of charges, he said: "There are always chances. In order for them to happen, an objective justice is needed. We just need to judge according to law."

MOSCOW, December 27 (RIA Novosti correspondent Maria Kuchma) 

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