Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko won Parliament support for his peace plan for war-torn Eastern regions and granting amnesty to combatants before heading to Canada and the United States to meet President Obama and address the US Congress. However, Poroshenko’s most radical concessions to Donetsk and Luhansk regions angered Ukrainian hawks, who accused him of betraying national interests.
Studio guest Sergei Oznobischev, Director of the Institute of Strategic Assessment, Andrei Kortunov, General Director of the Russian Council for International Relations, and Edward Lozansky, President of the American University in Moscow, shared their opinions with Radio VR.
Let’s start with Porosheko’s visit to the US and Canada. How important this visit was for Ukraine?
Sergei Oznobischev: Poroshenko demonstrated himself as a strong President. Not many people expected this, but this is a fact. When he came to the US, he was acting as a strong president of the country which is in a certain trouble. And by appealing to the American authorizes, tot eh rest of the world for the support of Ukraine with armaments and some other military equipment, and money, he demonstrated that even after certain accords that were made with President Putin and Russia, he has a decisive position.
I hope that the use of force will decline, but the peace is very often based on force and unpreparedness of any of the sides to break this peace, because the other side demonstrated certain force.
How would you assess this visit?
Andrei Kortunov: I think that it is an important visit for Ukraine and personally for Pyotr Poroshenko. He got a very warm reception in both countries. He got some assurances of assistance to Ukraine. Of course, he didn’t get everything that he wanted. For example, he failed to get an explicit commitment of the US to turn Ukraine into a special ally. And I think that there were some other disappointments along the road as well. But generally, I think that he can be quite pleased with the results.
Ukraine is in a volatile political situation, but also Ukraine is facing a constitutional reform and definitely the powers of the president will be curtailed, at least to some extent. So, for him it is a window of opportunity and definitely he faces quite a formidable opposition, specifically from the right. Many accuse Poroshenko of being too soft, of being too weak under the Russian pressure, many would say that he betrayed some fundamental interests of the Ukrainian nation.
We know this rhetoric and the election campaign is not the best time to make very unpopular decisions. So, we will see how it goes. But I think that Poroshenko tries to find a common denominator within the Ukrainian society, he is trying to represent the entire society and not just a part of it. And this is not easy, this is a very delicate balancing act on his part.
Do you think that President Poroshenko would be able to come up with some magic formula finally, which would restore the relations and bring the much awaited peace, and not just a ceasefire?
Andrei Kortunov: I think that there is no magic formula in the first place, because what we see is a moving target. So, any decision that Poroshenko might offer would be a temporary decision. I think that probably he does the right thing. He is trying to stop the violence, which is really the most important thing for the time being.
Secondly, he wants to postpone the ultimate decision till the dust settles down. That’s why he is talking about three years of this special status for the region of Donbas. And ultimately, I think his expectation is that in three years from now, if there are the reforms, if the tensions are calmed down, probably, it will be possible to reach a kind of long-term solution for the problem. But it is not likely that this solution can be achieved right away.
Can he emerge as a decent partner for President Putin, a partner without any hidden agenda?
Andrei Kortunov: Poroshenko, whether he likes it or not, but he is chained to President Putin. Russia can be a part of the problem, but Russia can be a part of the solution. And of course, it is in everybody’s interest that Russia becomes a part of the solution. That means that Poroshenko cannot somehow alienate or marginalize the Russian President. He cannot badmouth the Russian President.
And I think that what Poroshenko is trying to do, is to make sure that he keeps this balance. On the one hand, he expresses his concerns about the Russian policy but, on the other hand he doesn’t go as far as to put all the blame on President Putin, or on the Russia’s policies.
Edward Lozansky: The meeting between Poroshenko and Obama is kind of a routine usual thing. But a pretty outrageous thing happened in Congress when Mr. Poroshenko was invited to address the joint session. This is the highest honour towards any foreign leader and the background of Mr. Poroshenko doesn’t fit into the picture of someone who could have this honour of being invited. Obama probably understands that now, with the situation in the ME Russia’s help is needed. Maybe now he is thinking that all his previous policy on Ukraine was a pretty terrible mistake
The Ukrainian media was saying that President Poroshenko was coming to get a special status in the relations with the US and, as I understand, he didn’t get that. There is a feeling that the support was restricted to some symbolic moves.
Edward Lozansky: Yes, the situation changed dramatically, because maybe a month ago the Ukrainian army and the National Guard and all kinds of special battalions were close to victory, now this is a different picture. The military situation changed some sober minds in Washington. Poroshenko, who was waging a civil war against his own people, he, on the one hand, claims that Donbas is part of Ukraine. But if it is part of Ukraine, why do you do indiscriminate shelling killing thousands of civilians?
All this was probably intended to have a quick victory. Remember, Poroshenko said that if he becomes president, he would finish the whole thing in one week. It was a unique chance, he could put all the blame Turchinov, on Yatsenyuk or anyone else and say – let’s offer peace. Basically, what Rada accepted, this law is almost exactly what the southeastern Ukraine wanted in the beginning. So, had he accepted it when he became president, there would be no casualties, no suffering, no destruction of the whole areas of probably the most economically advanced regions of Ukraine. He made a terrible mistake.
And that is why I was pretty outraged that my country – the US – offered such an honour to a war criminal, to address a joint session of Congress. And standing ovation – to whom?! It is a terrible thing. But on the other hand, probably, Obama now has second thoughts and maybe not everything is lost yet.
