The new CNN poll made public this week, revealed that former State Secretary Hillary Clinton has every chance to be elected new US President in 2016, if she decides to run. The survey showed that if election was held today, Hillary Clinton would have easily beat Mitt Romney, who is seen as likely Presidential hopeful for the Republicans.
Edward Lozansky, President of the American University in Moscow, Dmitry Kosyrev, independent political observer, and Dr. Alexander Konovalov, President of the Institute of Strategic Assessments shared their opinions with Radio VR.
What is your assessment, how likely is she to run for presidency?
Edward Lozansky: It is true, she is indeed now the most popular and recognizable political figure. And if the elections were held today, most likely she would win, because there is no really strong candidate at the Republican Party’s side.
First of all, she has not announced it yet, although I'm pretty sure that she will run and we have two more years and many things can change. The Republican Party is now trying to identify who is the candidate who can beat Hilary. And according to my sources – the insiders in the Republican Party – it may sound strange, because this name is not really widely known – it is Governor of Wisconsin Scott Walker.
He is still now within the group of 8-9 candidates and he is not really at the top of the GOP list. But some people say we should expect within the next like two or three months a strong move by Scott Walker and that there are many people within the republican establishment who are going to support him. So, maybe, he will be able to compete with Hilary.
It seems that at present she is the only American politician who’s given extensive analysis of the Russian-American relations and the role of Vladimir Putin. I have a feeling that she won’t be in a position to antagonize Russia and that we can find some common ground for cooperation.
Yes, but there is another important point. When she’s been the Secretary of State she said – we will not allow the Eurasian Union to succeed. A pretty strong statement! Of course, Hilary has a tremendous experience and some people think that she already was president for 8 years, during her husband’s term, because she is a much stronger individual and everyone was saying that whatever Bill does, first, he talks to Hilary.
So, she has 8-year experience in the White House, plus Senator, plus Secretary of State. Of course, she is qualified, no doubt about it. But again, what is going to happen if she wins – the country will be divided. It is now already divided, but if Hilary enters the White House, this division will be much deeper, because she is, on the one side, popular with the Democratic Party and women minorities, but she is actually strongly hated by most of the Republican Party and this is unhealthy for the country. We need someone who will unite the country, not divide it. But with Hilary, I think the country will be divided even further.
Dmitry Kosyrev: I tend to be apprehensive. And this is not because of the leader-to-leader relations between Putin and Clinton, it is something which goes much-much deeper. We have a lot of contradictions between the Russian society and the Western or the American society. What I mean is feminism. Hilary Clinton is kind of an embodiment of an American woman with this peculiar assertive style.
My experience here is two-fold. First of all, I'm a bit Asian. I’ve spent a better part in Asia and I know plenty of Europeans and Americans who will go there to marry the locals, because they cannot stand the American women with their boisterous style. And l also talked to many Russian immigrants to America (there are about 3 or 4 millions of them there), who all say that we are voting Republicans and one of the reasons for that is that the American women are not exactly to our liking, and the state to which the feminism has gotten to is basically irrational.
And this is something which nobody considers important. But these small undercurrents shape agendas and relations, and you cannot determine it, but that may suddenly be important.
And if she does become the next president, what course could the American foreign policy take?
Dmitry Kosyrev: For instance, the policy against China – the policy of inciting China’s smaller neighbors and forming territorial disputes – it belongs to Madam Hilary Clinton. It is not Obama. Obama only signed under this idea of pivot into Asia. And the way it is harassing China, it strikingly resembles the way America is harassing Russia using a smaller nation like Ukraine and others. And I don’t like this kind of policy.
Sorry, for being so republican. Once I was lecturing in India and I was asked – what is your opinion about what is better, Democrats of Republicans. I said that if you choose between a tiger and a snake, for some reason you’ll chose a tiger, at least because you can see it in the grass and you understand its motifs and its actions, although the result may also be quite disastrous. I don’t trust the Democrats, I don’t trust their way of achieving their goals, I don’t trust their ideology.
And Hilary Clinton is just one of the examples of the very democratic policy. She in the White House is not encouraging me either, because at the time she was there, there were plenty of ugly stories in the world unfolding, like murdering Yugoslavia. They were not nice stories, but evil in the way how it was achieved. If America in a Republican way said that I want to succeed, because I'm strong, it would be ugly but not as ugly as the way such things are being done today and under Clinton.
How likely is she to run?
Alexander Konovalov: To my mind, two years is a too long period, especially now, in the current political situation. Of course, I know this information and I see that Mrs. Clinton has very good chances if the election takes place today, but during two years the situation can change dramatically.
Would she have enough political ambition or drive to actually stand for presidency in 2016?
Alexander Konovalov: I guess, Mrs. Clinton, if everything goes well, will be the leader of Democrats in the US, and a good leader with the very good chances to be elected. But it is my observation as a foreign observer, sometimes it seems to me that she has a health problem and running for presidency is a very heavy burden. I don’t know what decision she will take about her participation.
What future lies ahead for the US-Russian relations provided she is elected president?
Alexander Konovalov: She said many times that she was extremely skeptical about the perspective of the Russian-American relations. But, at the same time, I think that statements made before the elections and the behavior of an elected president – these are different things. And Mrs. Clinton is a high class professional. She understands and comprehend, to my mind, that there are a lot of problems growing in the political environment, which make it a must to speak with Russia and to agree with Russia. That’s why I don’t foresee special difficulties in the Russian-American relations, even in case Mrs. Clinton is elected as the president of the US.
