EDINBURGH, September 9 (RIA Novosti), Mark Hirst - The referendum on Scottish independence is "too close to call," an expert in political opinion polling has told RIA Novosti.
Professor John Curtice was responding after an opinion poll published Tuesday put pro and anti-Scottish independence sides evenly split on 50 percent each.
"The referendum race is now clearly too close to call," Curtice told RIA Novosti.
The poll published by TNS BMRM follows one at the weekend by another polling company, YouGov, that put the pro-independence campaign marginally ahead.
"Previously both TNS BMRM and that published by pollster YouGov have tended to find a relatively low vote for Yes. So this is crucial in helping us to decide whether there really has been a substantial swing to Yes," Curtice said.
"Today's poll, once the Don't Knows are eliminated, puts Yes on 50 percent, up six points on the company's previous polls conducted in July and August," Curtice added.
"As a result of today's poll, our poll of polls shows Yes on 48 percent and No on 52 percent," Curtice told RIA Novosti. A year ago the No campaign held a commanding 22 point lead.
Curtice added that one of the interesting aspects of today's poll was the number of people who said they did not vote in 2011 but would be casting a vote in the independence referendum.
"There has been a particularly large swing amongst those who voted Labour in 2011," Curtice said.
"But the most impressive gain has been amongst those who said they did not vote in the 2011 Scottish election and who constitute no less than half of all voters," Curtice told RIA Novosti.
"Amongst this group Yes support has increased from just over a third, 35 percent, to just under a half, 49 percent," Curtice said.
"The No side would, it seems, be unwise to assume that all it has to do to recover its position amongst ‘traditional’ Labour voters," Curtice added.
Curtice told RIA Novosti the results from these two combined polls, both showing significant swings to the Yes side, may reflect a sense that voters now feel they have enough information to make an informed decision on September 18.
"Perhaps this is an indication that voters have been paying more attention in recent weeks, and what they have seen and heard during that time has persuaded some of them that maybe independence is not such a bad idea after all?" Curtice added.
In a statement Blair Jenkins, the head of the pro-independence Yes Scotland campaign said, "This is another breakthrough poll which confirms that Yes has the momentum. Last September the No lead was 22 points - now Yes has surged to draw level at 50/50, and our campaign has the wind in its sails."
Blair McDougall, Director of the anti-Scottish independence campaign Better Together said in a statement, "We know from these polls that there is no room for a protest vote. The vote of any one of us could be crucial and could make the difference between the UK breaking up and staying together."
The Scottish independence referendum will be held September 18 and voters will be asked one question, "Should Scotland become an independent country?"
