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Ukraine Loses Chance to Change EU Association Deal for its Own Benefit

© Sputnik / Pavel Palamarchuk / Go to the mediabankParticipants of a rally held by supporters of Ukraine's EU integration. File photo
Participants of a rally held by supporters of Ukraine's EU integration. File photo - Sputnik International
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The Netherlands admitted that the government cannot ignore the results of the vote on the association agreement between the European Union and Ukraine. This may be a signal of the coming stalemate in the EU-Ukraine integration project.

Ukrainian and EU flags - Sputnik International
Dutch PM Says Referendum on EU-Ukraine Association Agreement 'Disastrous'
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte asked EU leaders for "legally binding" assurances to address his country’s concerns over an association deal between Brussels and Kiev, Reuters reported.

The deal on closer political and economic ties with Ukraine was signed in June 2014. The Netherlands is the only EU member state not to have ratified the agreement, following a referendum in April.

The results of the vote revealed that 61 percent were against ratification of the agreement. The referendum was not legally binding though.

"What we need is a legally binding solution, which will address the many worries and elements of the discussion in the Netherlands leading up to the referendum," Rutte said.

"The exact form — I don't know yet. It could be that we have to change the text, it could be that we can find a solution which will not involve changing the text of the association agreement. I don't know yet," he added.

EU flags with the names of Ukrainian cities on it supporting integration of Ukraine with the EU - Sputnik International
Germany Rules Out Ukraine's EU Membership for Foreseeable Future
In turn, President of the European Council, Donald Tusk said that the Netherlands will do everything possible to resolve the situation.

In fact, Rutte admitted for the first time that chances are slim to find a solution. The Dutch government is unlikely to ratify the agreement.

Theoretically, this means that the deal between Ukraine and the EU may be cancelled at any moment.

"According to the 2007 Lisbon Treaty, the Netherlands has the right to veto an integration deal between EU and new members. The vote prompted the Dutch government to change the text of the deal and hold a new vote in the parliament. If Brussels refuses to approve the updated agreement then Amsterdam is very likely to cancel ratification," Daniil Kirikov, managing partner at Kirikov Group, told the Russian online newspaper Vzglyad.

Since the referendum was non-binding the Dutch government can ignore the people’s will. But then people will ask the government questions, Dmitry Nuzhdenov, investment director at AGT Invest, pointed out. 

In fact, if the Netherlands refuses to ratify the agreement the EU would be able to cancel the deal. But this is an unlikely scenario. Probably, Brussels would use any means to delay the final decision.

The Netherlands will ratify the agreement only if Brussels withdraws the provision on Ukraine’s possible accession to the EU, military assistance to Kiev, and a possible visa-free regime, Kirikov said.

"A Dutch refusal to sign the agreement would be a fresh blow to the government of Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. Kiev is already facing a delay in its bid to win visa free access for its citizens to the bloc because of opposition by some member states," an article in The Wall Street Journal read.

People cast their vote for the consultative referendum on the association between Ukraine and the European Union in a makeshift polling booth at the Central train station in Utrecht, the Netherlands, April 6, 2016 - Sputnik International
EU Council Unlikely to Discuss Dutch Vote on EU-Ukraine Association
At the same time, Ukraine is not very concerned about the possible disruption of the agreement.

Even if the Dutch parliament does not ratify the deal the association will continue to work, Ukrainian economist Alexander Okhrimenko told Vzglyad.
"Brussels cannot cancel the deal unilaterally. However, the problem is that unless all the EU members ratify the agreement cannot be changed. The association will not develop. It will be a stalemate," he explained.

This will be a big disappointment for Ukrainian businesses because they will not be able to demand to change the text of the agreement. Initially, Kiev asked Brussels to expand quotas for Ukrainian products in the European market. However, even before the Dutch vote, Brussels rejected the demand.

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