For the past decade Russian politics has been all about ‘signals’ from on high.
In the absence of mature democratic institutions like parliament, independent courts and (with rare exceptions) truly independent media, what leaders say, especially the president, take on an almost-sacred meaning.
When 10 years ago, at the beginning of what turned out to be the long-running Khodorkovsky affair, Vladimir Putin publicly told the public and the media to ‘Stop the hysteria!’ everyone got the message – once Russia’s richest man, the owner of ‘Yukos,’ is going to jail, no matter what the top officials in Putin’s own administration, the media, or the West think about the merits of the case.
In December 2012, at a press conference, he said he ‘understood’ the reasoning behind the ban on the adoption of Russian children by people in the United States, which had just been initiated by the State Duma (lower house of parliament).
This seemingly-innocuous comment was understood as meaning “I’ll sign and defend this bill – and advise the officials to do the same!’
These ‘signals’ from the Kremlin have become an integral part of the ‘new Kremlinology.’ Instead of analyzing the Politburo line up above the Lenin mausoleum, today’s observers read these signals ‘instead.’ However, this has become increasingly difficult recently.
In summer, Mr. Putin was quoted as referring to ‘a trail of misdeeds’ following opposition politician Alexei Navalny. Everyone read this particular ‘signal’ as an indication that the anti-corruption crusader is going to jail.
However, he was spared this fate and went on to run for the Moscow mayor instead.
Some say this was a clever plot to give legitimacy to the elections while ensuring that the Kremlin-backed candidate, acting Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, wins. Mr Navalny’s future hangs in the balance but now that he opposed the Kremlin-backed mayoral candidate Sergei Sobyanin, his jailing, if it occurs, will have a very different resonance and meaning than only a couple of months before.
The same goes for the incident with the ‘Greenpeace’ activists who boarded ‘Prirazlomnaya,’ a Russian offshore oil platform in the Arctic. The activists protested against what they see as major damage to the environment posed by drilling. Thirty people, including a press photographer, were arrested and charged with piracy. Under Russian law, ‘piracy’ carries a maximum term of 15 years in jail. The case sparked international uproar.
The Netherlands has warned Russia that it is taking legal action, as the Greenpeace ship, ‘Arctic Sunrise,’ seized by the Russian authorities, was sailing under a Dutch flag.
Mr Putin has publicly said that he does not consider these environmental activists ‘pirates’ – which was taken as being a clear ‘signal’ that he does not need a scandal and the activists should be charged with something much more light and innocent.
However the powerful, but usually pliant, Investigative Committee and Prosecutor General’s office have yet to soften the charges these activists face.
In fact, on Wednesday Oct. 9, after Russian investigators said drugs were found on board the ship, a spokesperson for the Investigative Committee said that a number of defendants will be charged with “committing other grave crimes,” in addition to piracy.
‘The president has lost full control of the security apparatus which is playing its own game driven by hard line politics,’ some observers claim. Others say it is just a ‘good cop-bad cop’ game, played out for public enjoyment.
Few, though, believe that this scandal in any way benefits the Kremlin, especially in the run up to the Sochi winter Olympics in February 2014.
Visibly hounding the environmental activists does not win Mr. Putin any points with his domestic supporters (as, for example, the ban on US adoptions did). Losing to the Netherlands in international legal proceedings would mean public humiliation for the Kremlin – something Russia’s leadership would not class as an ideal outcome.
The ‘Greenpeace’ case is, for now, running its course, and Mr Navalny may well be sent to jail after yet another court hearing.
Personally I do not believe there is much chance of any kind of ‘inner circle opposition’ forming behind the Kremlin walls any time soon.
It may well be the case that deciphering the ‘signals’ is no longer of any use.
Perhaps a confrontational attitude towards all those who are perceived as adversaries prevailed – whatever the political price.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s and may not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
What is Russia's place in this world? Unashamed and unreconstructed Atlanticist, Konstantin von Eggert believes his country to be part and parcel of the "global West." And while this is a minority view in Russia, the author is prepared to fight from his corner.
Konstantin von Eggert is a freelance commentator and consultant. In 2010-2013 he worked for Kommersant FM radio in Moscow as a commentator and as Editor-in-Chief. He was Diplomatic Correspondent for Izvestia in the 1990s and later the BBC Russian Service Moscow Bureau Editor. Konstantin has also spent some time working as ExxonMobil Vice President in Russia. He was made Honorary Member of the Order of the British Empire by Queen Elizabeth II.
Due West: Black Clouds on the Horizon for Russia and Its Neighbors
Due West: A Dividing Issue, 20 Years On: Russia’s 1993 Constitutional Crisis
Due West: Russia’s G20 Summit Promised Little, and Delivered Even Less
Due West: The Kremlin Faces Tough Choices Over Syria
Due West: Russia’s Aggressive Defensiveness Is Damaging Its Image
Due West: Why Putin Sees Obama as a Weakling
Due West: Checks Without Balances
Due West: The Right to Bear Arms: An Issue to Divide Any Society
Due West: Hopes for the New Pope
Due West: Putin Plots to Avert a Crisis While Retaining Power
