US turned to Asia Pacific seeking more support on sanctions against Russia. How big are the chances that Washington’s appeal is heard? Radio VR is discussing it with Dr. Oh Ei Sun of RSIS, Malaysia, and Gleb Ivashentsov, former Russian Ambassador to South Korea.
In an interview with a Lithuanian news portal Alfa.Lt published last week, Daniel Fried, US State Department Coordinator for Sanctions Policy, said Washington was inviting China, South Korea and Singapore to join sanctions on Russia over what the US terms as Russia’s aggressive policy in Ukraine.
The US sanctions have already been joined by the European Union, Norway, Switzerland Canada Japan, Australia and New Zealand. Mr. Fried said he could not estimate the current effect of sanctions on Russia's policy in Ukraine, but he stated that the State Department is constantly looking for ways to apply more pressure.
China has already rejected the offer, saying "the Ukrainian crisis requires a political solution. In a real situation, sanctions do not solve the problem; on the contrary, they might cause new problems which do not meet the interests of all sides and the initial intention to resolve the crisis”.
Dr. Oh Ei Sun: I don’t think that at this point in time the US is in a position to offer a lot economically to the Southeast Asian nations in order to induce them to impose sanctions on Russia, because the US is simply not in an economically advantageous position to do so.
On the other hand, you would see that, in fact, the economic interactions, for example, trade between Russia and Southeast Asia, has traditionally not been as strong as the trade relations between Russia and, for example, Europe. So, I think such attempts would indeed have very limited results on the part of the US.
On the other hand, Singapore or South Korea, are generally regarded as the US allies in the region…
Dr. Oh Ei Sun: The US has the traditional allies, such as Japan, South Korea and Singapore in the region. For example, the economic relations between Singapore and Russia are big in terms of finance. But Singapore, let us not forget it, is an entrepot economy. So, whether it would follow the footsteps of the US in terms of “imposing sanctions” on the Russian economic activities in Singapore, I think that remains to be seen.
On the other hand, if we look at the northeast Asia, for example, Japan and South Korea... I think nowadays South Korea is in a position to try to be friendly to Russia more, because it has greater concerns with North Korea and they would like Russia to play a stronger role in terms of inducing North Korea to abandon the nuclear weapons program.
If you look at Japan, on the other hand, although traditionally Japan and Russia have some arguments over certain islands, but you could see that over the past 5 years or so Japan and Russia were getting closer economically. For example, Japan would require a lot of oil and gas from Russia. And Russia can use some of those technical know-hows from Japan.
The region is home to several huge financial centers - Singapore, in the first place, then Tokyo, Hong Kong. Do you think that the changing landscape in the global financial market could somehow induce changes on those financial hubs? And if so, what kind of change could that be? There’s been a lot of discussion about, perhaps, introducing some kind of substitute for the US Dollar…
Dr. Oh Ei Sun: I think there is a talk of, at least, two alternatives to the US Dollar being in use as, for example, the currency for the settlement of trade. The people are talking about using the Euro. However, over the past few years we saw that the Euro has its ups and downs in terms of its strength and so on. On the other hand, there is a strong movement to using the Renminbi, which is the China’s official currency, as a trade settlement currency for those countries which do trade with China bilaterally. For example, between Malaysia and China, and so on.
I think the second case, namely the use of Renminbi, as the so-called settlement currency, is gaining some attraction, especially in the Southeast Asia. For example, the Renminbi is being used as the so-called settlement currency between China and some of the Southeast Asian nations. So, I think slowly but steadily when it comes to, at least, the trade settlement, I think the Renminbi is gaining some attraction”.
Gleb Ivashentsov: As for the Asia Pacific countries participating in any sanctions against Russia, we should take into account that those countries follow the line that the sanctions are to be introduced by the UN. They are not to be introduced by a single country, but by an international organization. As for the American attempts to engage the Asia Pacific countries into these sanctions, we can see that except for Japan and Australia, not anyone has agreed to take any action.
And it is quite understandable. If you take China, China and Russia are the strategic partners. And it would be strange if the strategic partner of Russia takes part in the anti-Russian campaign initiated by the US. If you take South Korea, where I have been Ambassador for a number of years, we can see that in spite of the fact that Seoul is the strategic partner of the US, South Korea’s interests in the international politics are much wider than just their alliance with the US.
And again, there is a big economic interest, because the South Koreans are very much interested in developing their economic partnership with Russia. And the second matter is Russia’s cooperation with Koreans in settling the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula and the settlement of the Korean issue in general. South Koreans are very practical and very pragmatic people to just join a campaign which doesn’t bring them any benefit.
How about Singapore?
Gleb Ivashentsov: As for Singapore, it is a financial center. And I do not think they will risk their role as the financial hub of Asia Pacific just because someone in Washington wants that. Russia and Singapore have a very strong partnership in the financial activities in the Asia Pacific.
But, as far as I understand, at least, part of the reason for US sanctions is an attempt by Russia and some countries of the region to challenge the US Dollar in the global and regional economy. So, what could be the next steps the US might take to protect the Dollar?
Gleb Ivashentsov: You see, I will not predict any attempts by the US, because sometimes they are behaving very unpredictably. Everything what they are doing now in the Asia Pacific, it is kind of a repetition of the policies of the 1950’es and the 1960’es. They want to revive the Cold War in the Asia Pacific and the Asia Pacific countries are not interested in that.
What could Russia offer the Asian Pacific countries? What kind of interest would they have in developing economic and political relations with Russia?
Gleb Ivashentsov: Russia can bring a lot of benefits to the Asia Pacific countries. We should not forget that Russia is one of the permanent members of the Security Council of the UN, and Russia plays an important role in the global affairs in general.
Then, of course, many of the Asia Pacific countries have a good memory of the Soviet Union, the predecessor of Russia, supporting their national liberation movements. With many of the countries there we used to have active economic and defense agreements. I was there in Indonesia last year and I know how the Indonesians recalled the Soviet defense cooperation with them in the late 1950’es and 1960’es. So, these memories do not go off.
At present Russia can pay a very important economic and political role as well. If we speak about the economic role, Russia has two trump cards. The first is the Russian energy resources which could help Asia Pacific countries to develop their economies, because no economy can develop without energy.
Asia Pacific in general is the net importer of oil, natural gas and so on. Russia can supply them with that and our export of oil and gas is growing. And the last agreement with China, which is the enormous contract of the century for $400 billion, it is very indicative in that sense, because it can serve as a basis for the general Asia Pacific energy partnership where Russia can take the lead.
The other trump card is the Russian transit potential, because the development of the Northern Sea Route via the Arctic Ocean can change the whole map of the global shipping. And for all the countries, especially of the northeast Asia, it will be much more advantageous to transport their goods to Europe via the Northern Sea Route than via the traditional route of the Suez Canal.
And there are so many other opportunities as well. But if you take a political role, there is kind of a demand for Russia these days in Asia, because Russia does not participate in any direct conflicts in Asia and it can act as an intermediary in many of those conflicts.
What is the difference between Russia’s and America’s understandings of the role of a superpower? In Russia’s understanding a superpower is a country which cannot be commanded by anyone. In the American understanding a superpower is a country which commands everyone
You see, here is the difference. Russia stands for a multipolar Asia Pacific. The Americans want Asia Pacific to be their dominion. Therefore, there is quite a lot of pro-Russian sympathy in the Asia Pacific, and not just in China, but in so many other countries.
