Analyst: US Airstrikes Against IS in Syria Unlikely to Destroy Radicals Any Time Soon

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Although the decision to carry out airstrikes against Islamic State insurgents in Syria in addition to such in Iraq makes tactical sense, this strategy is unlikely to destroy IS any time soon, Gordon Hahn, Advisory Board Member at the Geostrategic Forecasting Corporation, told RIA Novosti Saturday.

WASHINGTON, September 13 (RIA Novosti), Lyudmila Chernova - Although the decision to carry out airstrikes against Islamic State insurgents in Syria in addition to such in Iraq makes tactical sense, this strategy is unlikely to destroy IS any time soon, Gordon Hahn, Advisory Board Member at the Geostrategic Forecasting Corporation, told RIA Novosti Saturday.

"The decision to undertake airstrikes against IS in Syria in addition to such strikes against IS in Iraq makes strategic and tactical sense because IS remains quite strong in Syria and bombing their strongholds in Iraq alone would simply drive them into Syria where they would find a haven," Gordon Hahn said, adding the problem was that "in Syria the ‘moderate Syrian opposition’ is only moderate compared ultra-extremist jihadi groups like IS, Jabhat al-Nusra, and Ahrar Sham."

"The Free Syrian Army is dominated by the same Muslim Brotherhood we supported being removed from power in Egypt via a military coup."

Earlier this week, US President Barack Obama said Washington would be extending its airstrikes from Iraq to Syria to defeat IS and would provide support, equipment and training to Kurdish and Iraqi forces and Syria's opposition to respond to the threat.

Hahn stressed that there are other problems with intervening in this overlapping, multi-level, multi-player chess game, and the best but not necessarily most likely outcome of this venture will be a divided Iraq and a divided Syria with IS contained for the mid- to long-term.

Hahn also underlined that America was at risk, in effect, of reversing its anti-Assad policy of a mere year ago.

"The expectation that in return for Western airpower, advisors, and arms the moderate opposition will be effective in waging an even more robust two-front war against both the jihadist armies and Assad’s Syrian army requires some major wishful thinking," the expert said.

"Moreover, the bombing and Iraqi offensive against IS in Iraq is likely to push IS forces back into Syria anyway, complicating the Free Syrian Army’s task."

The analyst also noted that the White House would need to get Congress’s approval for such military action and a UN approval.

"The former is especially needed since the operational and political difficulties that will be encountered over the next few years require bipartisan support, if public support is to be maintained," he stressed.

"Otherwise, partisan sniping not so much between the Democratic and Republican Parties but within them could drain public support. The DP’s leftists and RP’s libertarians are likely to turn against the deepening involvement and the expenditures, respectively, over time."

Hahn thinks that the single clear advantage of this strategy is that IS will be put on the defensive and therefore find it more difficult to realize its goals of consolidating a territory for the caliphate and using it as a base from which to carry out attacks outside the region against Western and other ‘infidel’ targets.

"Unfortunately, it is too late to solve the problem any other way, and the present strategy is unlikely to destroy IS completely any time soon," Hahn concluded.

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