Expert: ‘Missing Million’ Voting Intentions in Scottish Independence Referendum Doubtful

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The pro-Scottish independence Yes campaign may have put too much faith in the so-called "million missing" voters who independence leaders hope will back them in the Scottish independence referendum to be held 18th September, Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University has told RIA Novosti.

GLASGOW, September 2 (RIA Novosti), Mark Hirst -The pro-Scottish independence Yes campaign may have put too much faith in the so-called "million missing" voters who independence leaders hope will back them in the Scottish independence referendum to be held 18th September, Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University has told RIA Novosti.

“It is not entirely clear that enhanced voter participation, i.e. if a million extra votes are cast, that this will be advantageous to the Yes side,” Curtice said.

“If turn out is 75% in the referendum, which is a conservative estimate, then a million more votes will be cast than was the case in the 2011 Scottish Parliamentary election. That’s where the missing millions phrase comes from,” a polling expert added.

At the weekend leader of the pro-Scottish independence Alex Salmond told an audience in Dundee the ‘missing million’ had just 24 hours to ‘seize the wealth of opportunity’ that independence would bring.

“People who want to vote but aren’t yet on the electoral roll have just 24 hours left to sign up to take part in Scotland’s date with destiny,” Salmond said.

But Curtice warned there was no firm evidence to suggest that these additional voters would necessarily back the Yes side.

“A million extra votes will be cast from one source or other and Yes side hope these extra voters will help them,” Curtice noted.

“If you think about it, it is painfully obvious and it’s been there in the polls for months,” he added.

Strathclyde University Professor also claimed that the people who voted in 2011 include a large phalanx of people who voted for the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) and included everybody who is really committed to the nationalist cause.

“The people who abstained from the 2011 vote are not political anoraks, they are people who are not necessarily committed to anything terribly much and therefore don’t be surprised, given how well the SNP did in 2011, the bulk of those voters are not particularly nationalist,” Curtice stated.

The Professor of Politics also pointed to another factor, namely the higher tendency of pro-independence supporters to cast their vote.

“That is, are Yes voters more likely to turn out than No voters irrespective of the level of turn-out? The answer to that is Yes. It seems to be worth around a point or two to the pro-independence side. But most opinion polls already factor this into their estimate,” Curtice concluded.

Scots go to the polls on 18th September and will be asked one question, “Should Scotland become an independent country?”

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