MOSCOW, August 7 (RIA Novosti) – The confrontation in Nagorno-Karabakh between the Azerbaijani and Armenian militants may pose a substantial threat to peace in post-Soviet South Caucasus and aggravate US-Russia tensions, western experts claim.
If a large-scale military conflict breaks out "between Azerbaijan, an ally of the US and Turkey, and Russian-backed Armenia has the potential to put NATO directly at odds with the government in Moscow," points out Timothy Ash, London-based chief economist for emerging markets at Standard Bank Group Ltd., cited by Bloomberg.
Russia, the United States, the European Union and the UN secretary-general expressed their growing concerns over the Nagorno-Karabakh clash – another violent skirmish in post-Soviet space in addition to the ongoing strife in Ukraine.
The war over Nagorno-Karabakh, the former Soviet Azerbaijan Republic's autonomous region, erupted immediately after the collapse of the USSR in 1991. According to Armenian experts, the territory of Artsakh (an unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh republic) was artificially separated from Armenia in 1921 by the Bolsheviks and transferred to Azerbaijan. The fierce military confrontation lasted nearly four years and resulted in deaths of over 30,000 people. After the ceasefire in 1994, the war turned into a protracted "frozen" conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh republic, however, remained unrecognized by the international community.
On July 8, US Ambassador to Armenia John Heffern stated in an interview with an Armenian online news source News.am that the return of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan was a necessary condition for the conflict resolution. "Subsequently, the territories contiguous to Nagorno-Karabakh – except for the Lachin Corridor – must be returned," he claimed. According to the Ambassador, the international peacekeeping forces should be deployed in the region: "Some security guarantees and the presence of international peacekeeping forces are necessary before the Armenian party returns the territories."
It should be noted that earlier, in June, NATO PA seminar "The South Caucasus: Challenges and Opportunities" took place in Baku. Dedicated to Azerbaijan foreign policy priorities, particularly Nagorno-Karabakh issue, it brought together about 60 parliamentarians from NATO member countries and its allies. Encouraged by the White House, Azerbaijani President Aliyev has stated repeatedly that he had "no doubts" that Azerbaijan will "restore its territorial integrity," Bloomberg reports.
Experts point to Washington's increasing interest to the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Modest Kolerov, former head of Department for Interregional and Cultural Relations with Foreign Countries and the CIS of the Russian President's Administration, deems that during the forthcoming OSCE Minsk Group meeting the US may propose to deploy peacekeeping forces in the disputed region. Maintaining control over Nagorno-Karabakh the US would strengthen its influence in post-Soviet South Caucasus. In addition it would gain a foothold near the Iranian borders, the expert noted in an interview with the Izvestia newspaper. The skirmishes in the region may serve as plausible pretext for peacekeeping troopers' deployment. Russia, however, can seize the initiative in geopolitical competition during President's Putin negotiations with Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders in Sochi, on August 8-9, 2014.
It should be noted that the ongoing military clash may produce a negative impact on important Armenian and Azerbaijani state projects: Yerevan prepares to join the Eurasian Economic Union in January 2015; Baku signed a $45 billion deal with BP in December 2013 to pipe oil and natural gas to Europe bypassing Russia. The conflict escalation would irretrievably ruin the plans of the South Caucasus states, note experts.
