Ignoring the Status Quo

© RIA Novosti . Vladimir Astapkovich / Go to the mediabankA new political cycle has begun in Russia with the detention of more than 700 protesters in Moscow and renewed attempts to restrict street activity in the capital.
A new political cycle has begun in Russia with the detention of more than 700 protesters in Moscow and renewed attempts to restrict street activity in the capital. - Sputnik International
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A new political cycle has begun in Russia with the detention of more than 700 protesters in Moscow and renewed attempts to restrict street activity in the capital. It was unusual for the authorities to put on such an undisguised display of force at the outset of a new Kremlin administration as they have done this month.

A new political cycle has begun in Russia with the detention of more than 700 protesters in Moscow and renewed attempts to restrict street activity in the capital. It was unusual for the authorities to put on such an undisguised display of force at the outset of a new Kremlin administration as they have done this month.

Two assumptions may be drawn from this. First, that Russia’s rulers have little concern over a possible political fallout from these steps, and second, that they believe that such a fallout, were it to emerge, would be easily contained.

The “triumphant” return to the Kremlin of newly re-elected Vladimir Putin took place along deserted Moscow streets and cordoned off neighborhoods with the public kept well at bay by riot police.

This picture of apparent insulation from actual voters suggests that Russia’s ruling elites no longer even care about keeping up their appearances.

This first became evident last September with the announcement of the planned job switch to be undertaken by the then-prime minister, Putin, and his handpicked presidential successor (and now predecessor), Dmitry Medvedev.

The contemptuous manner in which this plan was shared with the voters instigated some very basic qualitative changes in the mood of the people, particularly among the educated urban middle class. And this mood shift was followed two months later by the largest street protests seen in Russia in two decades.

In the midst of the presidential electoral campaign, the overall approach to the public was softened. The authorities permitted the demonstrations and even initiated the liberalization of the political system. However, as the desired result, namely the convincing vote for Putin, was achieved, the authorities again opted to show their might even more vigorously. Those who demonstrate their dissent to the official political course are declared provocateurs, while those who show their unconditional support are given special appreciation by the winner.

Obviously a major change has occurred in the public mood over the last months, namely that the object of resentment toward Russian authority has been personified in one specific person: the president.

The question remains: What can be expected from the new political cycle in Russia that is just beginning?

Social stability is more fragile than it seems and will much depend on what steps the authorities take. Will they interpret the current public outcry as a sign of society’s genuine demand for change, or will they instead take it as an attempt of “provocateurs” and “overseas agents” to tear down the system of power in Russia?

The state of the Russian society will not return to its former somnolent indifference, political analysts say. A study conducted recently by Olga Kryshtanovskaya, head of the Center for the Study of the Elites at the Russian Academy of Sciences, shows the protesters’ base broadening. Authorities should be more scrupulous in their steps, she says; the protest moods will not disappear because underlying conditions persist, such as pervasive corruption, neglect of civic interests by state officials and the extremely poor quality of state services.

If the causes of public anger remain, sooner or later it will lead to a new public outcry. This is why Russian authorities should not regard the lack of massive protests that may last through most of the summer as a decline of social discontent in general.

The most dangerous scenario might be a spontaneous reaction to any kind of event. This could be an accident with an ordinary pedestrian run over by a state official’s car, a crackdown on the opposition leaders, a catastrophic event such as a natural disaster, which the authorities would fail to cope with or even a terrorist attack.

Such an unforeseeable event could highlight the inefficiency as a whole of government institutions and bring on an equally unpredictable and most likely furious reaction of a society that can no longer endure this reality.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s and may not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti. 

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