Belarus owes Russia two months’ worth of payments for electricity. The company Inter RAO, the Russian exporter of electricity, has imposed restrictions on deliveries. And this is not the only trouble Minsk faces in its current economic crisis. Belarus is experiencing renewed expressions of popular discontent, and this time they are not devised by the opposition. Drivers are seen protesting. As increases in oil prices persist (fourth time this year) so do queues in gas stations. Prices for cigarettes have risen by 30-60% since June 8, but, in reality, they have entirely disappeared from the market. It is still impossible to purchase foreign currency in exchange offices.
Will these economic hardships trigger serious civil actions? Experts believe the government will succeed in maintaining control of situation, at least until fall. As if in support of this claim, President Alexander Lukashenko reversed fuel rises merely a day after public protests.
Motorists protesting
In accordance with the order issued by the Belarusian State Concern for Oil and Chemistry (Belneftekhim), June 7 saw the price of diesel fuel jump by 30.8% to 5,100 Belarusian rubles per liter, A92 petrol by 29.1% (5,100 rubles per liter), A95 by 33.3% (5,800 rubles per liter). Two weeks have passed since the last, 25% increase on petrol, which took place on May 24. This was the fourth price rise this year.
A day earlier, Belneftekhim’s gas stations introduced restrictions on the sale of fuel for cash, limiting it to 25 liters per car. The announcement prompted strings of cars pulling up to gas stations. Kilometer-long queues appeared in minutes.
The June 7 “Stop Gasoline” protests, against soaring petrol prices, saw dozens of participants block the city’s main street by staging automobile breakdowns.
“Dozens of motorists effectively paralyzed traffic on the Independence Avenue” says Alexei Korolev, editor-in-chief of independent Belarusian newspaper Novaya Vremya. “The protest lasted over two hours and even drivers who were simply passing by joined it. Onlookers cheered the drivers. Small banknotes were flying around in a symbolic gesture to demonstrate that they have become paper wrappers, devoid of any real worth. Five participants have already been arrested and put on trial.”
Is social outburst likely?
Experts believe that the motorists’ protest could be the first of many.
The current growth in prices, depreciation of the Belarusian ruble, collapse of wages by over 50% have led to increased dissent in society, Korolev says.
“Comments denouncing Lukashenko’s regime can be heard in queues, on public transport. This discontent is now largely passive, but signs of its development into overt action can already be seen. Mass protest is possible, although not in the near future. However, if current prices do not stabilize, if firms delay payments of wages, then a social explosion is possible,” the journalist believes.
He says the current situation might follow the script of the 90s, when Belarus went through a wave of strong social unrest.
“Belarusians are still loyal to the old principle that one has to survive individually and this includes reliance on home-grown products. But by the fall the situation might escalate,” Korolev says.
Russian experts agree that the current economic situation cannot be to the liking of the Belarusian people. The real question is how the government will respond to them and whether the people will accept and adjust to the hard times.
“I think the people, understanding the causes of the crisis, are prepared to tighten their belts, and are not prone to radical actions,” Darya Ushkalova, researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences, told RIA Novosti.
“Household income in Belarus increased by 30% last year and now the country is experiencing a return to the old standard of living. In such a scenario there should not be any sudden social explosions. However, if the standard of living deteriorates then serious discontent might arise,” she says.
Society does not follow the opposition
The public’s reaction will largely depend on the success of protests, postulates Mikhail Vinogradov, the president of the Petersburg Politics foundation.
“If one looks at Belarus in the past 25 years, then it can be seen that powerful public protests rarely took place. On the other hand, the society now feels more acutely than ever that the government is losing control in areas such as the economy, foreign policy, and security. A lot depends on the situation in Minsk, which is rather critical of Lukashenko,” the analyst told RIA Novosti.
The expert believes that in Belarus, just like in many other post-Soviet countries, such as Kazakhstan and Russia, a strong alternative political force is absent. Therefore, even though dissatisfaction with the government increases, society does not show an inclination to support any of the opposition parties.
“Only two outcomes are likely to occur. Either the government will outlast the crisis and survive, or specific individuals might appear who will attract and guide the people,” the expert adds.
In his opinion, this is remotely reminiscent of situation in Russia. Declines in ratings of both the president and the prime minister, social apathy, public discontent over inflation and rising petrol prices are not accompanied by any dramatic increase in the popularity of opposition movements or non-systemic leaders. Rather, it develops into a common exasperation with politics, without becoming a source of hope for citizens – there are simply no supporters of either the government or the opposition.
“I think that out of post-Soviet countries, the current situation in Belarus is reminiscent of that in Kyrgyzstan in the past five-to-seven years.
But Belarus does not experience deep schisms or territorial competition of elites, which was the case in Kyrgyzstan and sometimes led to revolutions,” Vinogradov says.
Uniting in crisis
Opposition parties have markedly decreased their activities in the past few months. This was a consequence of the arrests and crowd dispersals surrounding the December 2010 presidential elections. The opposition movement in the country is currently fragmented.
“The intention to unite forces is present and has been articulated by everyone, but no concrete steps have been taken to achieve this,” Korolev says.
For such an alliance to make sense, the Belarusian opposition has to develop its own program for tackling the economic crisis, asserts Ushkalova.
“Today, the opposition proposes to end both the injection of money in the economy and lending. But such measures are certain to lead to a halt in economic growth and will surely have negative consequences. Therefore it is quite likely that any initiatives will be introduced and maintained by the official authorities, which are taking measures to decrease the balance of payments deficit,” the economist says.
Social networks
A prominent feature of revolutions today is the potent organizational role of the internet and social networking sites in preparations of concerted action. The case of Egypt, when mass protests were organized and coordinated through Facebook and Twitter, is well-known. A similar development, although not of the same scale, is happening in Belarus.
“Nowadays, civil society, registered and unregistered nongovernmental organizations and social sites serve as the main driving force behind public protests. The increasing role of the internet in planning public demonstration has to be highlighted. The organization of “Stop Petrol” took place largely through the internet,” Korolev says.
There are incidents of coordinators of internet social groups being summoned for interrogation by the KGB. Incidentally, this has caused many users searching for new, non-traceable methods of internet communication.
“It can be said that government prosecution is eliminating internet illiteracy among the population,” the journalist adds.
The views expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
