All roads lead to exile for Gaddafi

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Muammar Gaddafi - Sputnik International
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NATO stopped bombing Tripoli during the six-hour visit by South African President Jacob Zuma, who traveled there to convince Muammar Gaddafi to step down.

NATO stopped bombing Tripoli during the six-hour visit by South African President Jacob Zuma, who traveled there to convince Muammar Gaddafi to step down.

It is unclear whether his mission succeeded or failed, especially because Zuma is not the only peacemaker. The G8 leaders charged Mikhail Margelov, a special representative of the Russian president, with a similar task on the last day of their summit in Deauville, France. But there is no reason to assume that Margelov will have any more success.

African roadmap vs. G8 proposals

South Africa is the most influential country south of the Sahara, but President Zuma went to Tripoli on behalf of the 53-member African Union - an organization Libya belongs to.

Colonel Gaddafi tried at one time to become a pan-African leader, but only succeeded in turning the Organization of African Unity into the African Union in 2002. Although he was not elected the AU leader, Libya under Gaddafi was clearly an African state with a distinguished African policy, rather than a Middle Eastern one.

Gaddafi sent weapons and money to different forces in Sudan - a painful memory for the country that has been split in two. He also helped the black population of South Africa to end white rule. Zuma, who headed the African National Congress's Underground Structures and its Intelligence Department in the late 1980s, was one of those who accepted Gaddafi's assistance.

The African Union approved a roadmap for settling the internal Libyan conflict in April, a few weeks after NATO started bombing Libya on March 19. Like the neighboring Arab countries, the African Union initially supported the UN resolution on a no-fly zone over Libya. But then it said the bloc had exceeded the UN mandate and that the senseless war must end.

People in Arab countries share this view, although many of them dislike Gaddafi and want him out of power.

Clearly, Zuma and the rest of Africa, as well as some Arab countries, are working against the plan the G8 leaders have approved in Deauville.

The G8 only wants to get rid of Gaddafi as a symbol of evil and to help NATO, which cannot keep bombing Libya but does not want to start a ground operation. But African, Arab and many other countries see the situation not as a battle between a "democratic good" and a "dictatorial evil," but as a civil war.

There are tried and tested formulas for ending civil wars, which nearly all African countries have fought. The best solution is to wait until the enemy is up against the wall, force it to agree to a ceasefire, and then start talks on the division of power. This is the essence of all such roadmaps.

By becoming involved in Libya, NATO and the other Western countries confronted a large group of countries, which they certainly can ignore, but would be ill advised to do so.

President Zuma said before leaving Tripoli that NATO's bombing raids are hindering his peace efforts, which is bad for the West. The influence of the G8 is rapidly diminishing, while the prestige of other countries, including South Africa, is growing.

Is Gaddafi ready to leave?

The Americans believe that Zuma's mission has failed because he has not convinced Gaddafi to abandon power, but this is not what Zuma went to Tripoli for.

He wanted to convince Gaddafi to accept the African roadmap, even though the colonel had accepted the previous roadmap in April. However, Gaddafi has not honored his commitment.

The next objective is to sell the idea to the Benghazi rebels, who have blundered by not establishing relations with African countries. Like NATO and the G8, they only want Gaddafi to leave.

Their situation is said to have improved after 120 of Gaddafi's officers defected to Benghazi (five of them later turned up in Italy), allegedly depleting the colonel's military potential by 80%. Heartened by the improvement, the rebels are preparing to launch a new offensive in the next few days. They badly want to get rid of Gaddafi, thinking that they will easily come to an agreement among themselves once he is gone.

But the belief of the rebels and their friends that Gaddafi's forces are depleted may be groundless.

Besides, Gaddafi has reasons to doubt the sincerity of those who are offering him a path to stepping down, as can be seen from the 1999 war in Yugoslavia, when President Slobodan Milosevic was promised the moon and the stars. He was arrested on suspicion of corruption, abuse of power, and embezzlement in 2001 and died in his prison cell in the Hague in 2006.

So, there are two roadmaps. One of them provides for Gaddafi’s exile by a route mapped out by the G8 and possibly presented by Mikhail Margelov. After getting rid of Gaddafi the Libyans may accept the other roadmap, drafted by the African Union, as there are no other options.

 

 

The views expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.

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