Russia and Abkhazia were likely to defend South Ossetia from a Georgian attack, and NATO was likely not to help the Georgian army directly. Tbilisi fully realized that, and for this reason Mikheil Saakashvili could hardly have hoped to resolve his territorial problem by a military operation. So, what was the point of what Vladimir Putin described as a "bloody venture?"
Before this conflict, Saakashvili often emphasized the need for NATO peacekeepers' presence in the region. It would help him exert more pressure on Abkhazia, and particularly, South Ossetia with a view to bringing them back to Georgia.
Apparently, Georgia's current aggression is designed to prove that Russia has failed as a peacekeeper, turn it into a side in this conflict, and eventually invite NATO peacekeepers to come to the region.
What will Russia do in this situation? It seems that it is ready only to prevent the occupation of South Ossetia by Georgian troops.
A spokesman for the Russian navy said that although the Black Sea Fleet has approached the conflict zone, it is not going to block Georgian ports because Russia is not at war with Georgia.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said more than once that Russia is carrying a peace-enforcement operation rather than fighting against Georgia. Moreover, Russia agreed to a ceasefire on condition that Georgian troops leave South Ossetia and the talks are resumed.
This strategy has its pros and cons. On the one hand, Russia is demonstrating that it controls the situation, and continues to be neutral. However, the Western media and politicians may choose to ignore this position, if they wish. On the other hand, Georgia's troop pullout from South Ossetia will not restore the status quo in the region because thousands of lives in Ossetia have already been lost. Hence, a troop withdrawal will not be enough. Georgia will have to be punished, most likely, by some international tribunal.
Some experts are already toying with this idea, although Russian ombudsman Vladimir Lukin is the only official to have voiced it on the record. However, it is not clear how Georgian leaders may be brought to trial. Slobodan Milosevic and Saddam Hussein were taken to court after the collapse of their regimes.
Political analyst Leonid Radzikhovsky said that those who are to blame for the events in the conflict zone can be put on trial legally. He said that it is possible to establish a special agency for this purpose, but that it will not be internationally recognized. He recalled the Hague Tribunal in this context. It is somewhat politicized but respected in the West.
"I don't know a single case when the political leaders of a state were brought to responsibility while they were still in power," Radzikhovsky said.
South Ossetia's recent moves also show that Saakashvili may be punished by law. Its investigation committee has instituted criminal proceedings against Georgia. In response, the Georgian leaders have taken the case against Russia to the Hague Tribunal. It is hard to say who will win the legal battle. But thousands of victims cannot be deleted from evidence against Saakashvili.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
