The talks were held in the two-plus-two format with the participation of U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Defense Secretary Robert Gates, and their Russian counterparts Sergei Lavrov and Anatoly Serdyukov. Lavrov summed up the discussion, which lasted for many hours: "Russia and the United States have not yet come to terms on missile defense but are going to continue the dialogue." Serdyukov added that "the sides have not changed their principled positions, although we heard once again what we have to work on."
Serdyukov used the word "heard" for a reason. At the fall meeting in the same format, the U.S. participants made a number of proposals to their Russian partners, which could remove some of their concerns about the deployment of the missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic. But these proposals were conspicuously absent from a subsequent official letter from Washington, which explained the U.S. position. When asked this time how this could have happened, Rice replied with a charming smile that some things always get lost in translation.
This regularly happens with the missile defense problem. At the last news conference in Moscow, the American partners promised to send their proposals in writing to the Russian side by the end of the day. But they appeared in the Russian Foreign Ministry only by the end of the following day.
The proposals will certainly be thoroughly analyzed. But on his way to Moscow, in the in-flight interview, Gates told journalists that no new proposals would be made to Russians. All proposals have already been made, and the ball was in Russia's court.
However, unofficial sources report that in order to alleviate Russia's misgivings, Washington has offered to position high-frequency radar in the Czech Republic in a way that would prevent it from watching Russian territory, and not to put interceptor missiles into silos in Poland until it becomes abundantly clear that Iran has ballistic missiles capable of destroying targets on the territory of U.S. European allies.
Moreover, the U.S. partners promised to allow Russian officers to visit their military bases if the governments of the host countries agree to this. Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek has already said that he will allow such visits on the basis of reciprocity - provided Russia gives Czech officers access to similar radars on its territory, but did not specify what he meant by "similar."
Sources in the Russian defense ministry are very dubious about the new U.S. proposals. Off the record, they insist that all proposals brought by Rice and Gates to Moscow this time do not change the gist of the problem. Their aim is to alleviate Russia's grievances and show their European allies that it is impossible to come to terms with "those Russians" - we have been offering them this and that, but they just won't agree to anything. Particularly, they want to emphasize this to those allies who are not happy about U.S. plans to defend itself with a missile shield, and leave them the role of a target for retaliation.
The same sources argue that Washington has not reduced Russia's concerns about the threat of a U.S. missile shield to the Russian nuclear deterrent in the European part, where Russia keeps about one third of its counterforce potential.
Defense ministry representatives note that by way of confidence building Rice and Gates have offered to let Russian officers visit the radar in the Czech Republic or the GBI site in Poland given the consent of their respective governments. But who can guarantee that this consent will be given? Topolanek has made the promise now, but later on he can take it back. The proposals not to target the radar at Russia or to keep interceptor missiles non-operational are pretty much the same. Anything can be promised, Russian military say. However, the U.S. is not going to sign a legally binding document. Washington can retarget the radar, make missiles operational, and go on with other war preparations without looking back at Russia.
The authenticity of information about Iran possessing ballistic missiles capable of reaching targets in Europe is also dubious. Many remember how former U.S. Secretary of State Collin Powell showed in the UN satellite pictures of facilities with Saddam Hussein's chemical weapons. The possession of weapons of mass destruction by the unpredictable dictator became one of the pretexts for the war against Iraq. These weapons have not been found until this day, although the war started exactly five years ago. Won't the situation repeat itself with Iranian ballistic missiles?
There are other reasons to doubt the sincerity of the U.S. partners, although some things may have got lost in translation. Before his arrival in Moscow, Gates made a trip to Turkey where he held talks with its leaders on the deployment of one more American high-frequency radar on the Anatolian Plateau capable of not only detecting foreign missile launches but also targeting its interceptor missiles at them. Russian military experts believe that in addition to the new radar, Washington may set up a base for interceptor missiles that will be really used against Iran.
The problem is that Washington has never said when it intends to stop the deployment of its missile defense system. Army General Yury Baluyevsky, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, said with good reason at a news conference at RIA Novosti last December that Washington will not stop at Poland and the Czech Republic, and that it will have missile interceptors in Norway and Britain. Now it transpires that it may deploy them in Turkey as well.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
