MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Yury Filippov).
Russia contains 4-6% of the world's oil deposits. Because of skyrocketing global oil prices it now plays a more important role in international politics. Members of the influential Valdai Discussion Club that brings together leading experts on Russia recently held their annual conference, saying this process was a fait accompli.
Other factors also enhance Russia's international prestige. The whole world knows that Russia was greatly weakened after the Soviet Union's disintegration. Nonetheless, it retained its strategic nuclear forces and vast territory. Russia also continues to influence neighboring countries. Moscow joined the international anti-terrorist coalition that began to emerge after the horrendous September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in New York and Washington. Add to this President Vladimir Putin's skillful diplomacy in the international arena, with regard to the United States, Europe and Asia. All this, plus a favorable global raw-materials market situation, helped the country to cope with the post-Soviet shock.
The raw-materials and oil factor remains quite important. Suffice it to recall Russian-U.S. summits of the last few years and their traditional agendas, i.e. the fight against terrorism, nuclear non-proliferation and strategic arms cuts, and talks concerning the energy sector. Energy cooperation has also become a top priority in relations between Russia and European countries. It is hardly surprising that an agreement on building the Baltic pipeline was signed during Vladimir Putin's recent visit to Germany. As a result, Russian gas would serve as a reliable alternative to dwindling North Sea resources in the years to come.
Frankly speaking, Russia's role as a major fuel-and-energy exporter cannot be argued even without current sky-high oil prices. As little as two years ago Russia and Saudi Arabia were vying with each other as the leading oil producers in the world. However, the situation is quite different today. Given worldwide inflation, higher absolute oil prices would not have necessarily improved Russia's foreign-trade positions. But relative oil prices that are expressed in other goods, and not dollars, have also increased.
Russian consumers are enjoying this situation immensely because a portable Japanese TV set now costs as much as one or two barrels of oil. Even people living below the official poverty line are able to buy it. The USSR exported the same amount of oil 20 years ago when Mikhail Gorbachev's perestroika began. Back then, few members of the local middle class could buy high-tech Western TV sets because of high relative prices. Over-centralized foreign trade played a less important role in this regard.
Raw-material exports facilitated all-out computerization in the last 10-15 years. Russia merely assembles computers out of foreign accessories. Nonetheless, even the most remote village schools have their own computers today. President Putin wants all Russian secondary educational establishments to have Internet access. Even the opposition does not doubt the fact that this is going to happen soon.
Only the wealthy could afford to buy mobile phones when one barrel of oil cost $8. The situation has drastically changed today, with more than one-third of Russia's 147-million population owning mobile phones.
One can say that Russian citizens have every chance of buying modern appliances and trendy clothes, if the favorable oil-market situation lasts long enough, and if the ruble becomes even stronger than it is today. In addition, Russia could overhaul its worn-out fixed assets in line with post-industrial standards.
Some people think this scenario is too optimistic. True, modern history knows few examples of successful modernization built solely on the exportation of raw-materials. The Russian Cabinet seems to be ashamed of the country's excessive reliance on raw-materials exports. All Soviet and Russian governments have dreamed of producing and exporting hi-tech goods in the last 30-40 years. Foreign equipment and licenses must be purchased in order to accomplish this objective. Higher relative prices of raw-materials would benefit Russia because it can now afford to buy equipment and know-how which were earlier dear for it. The USSR used to do the same until oil prices came tumbling down in the mid-1980s. This process ground to a halt because of subsequent Russian problems.
The latest Valdai Discussion Club conference highlighted some Western these concerns. The price of oil, Russia's main export commodity, may hit an all-time high. Oil shortages are also possible. How will Russia react in this situation? Will Moscow want to dictate its will to Western partners?
A study of Russia's actual policy will make it possible to answer these questions. Russia has been intensively exporting oil in the last 50 years. But it has refused to join OPEC, an organization that often opposes oil-consuming nations rather actively. Russia did not try to speculate on oil shortages even during the darkest hours of the Iraqi crisis. Nor did it want to whip up oil prices. President Putin said on the eve of the G8's 2004 Sea Island summit that it would be "fair", if a barrel of Russia's Urals cost $20-25. The Government of Russia has no intention of obtaining unilateral advantages today because the 2006 draft federal budget stipulates just $40 per barrel of export-destined oil.
The oil-rich Arab world would not understand such "shyness." However, Russia wants to join the West and offers mutually acceptable long-term partnership principles.
